With the lap laid out it's time to breakdown the men that
will be taking it on. Red Bull enter
with the constructors lead and Alonso with the drivers. Suzuka being both high speed and technical
with elevation change and a need for great aerodynamics is similar to Spa
Francorchamps. Like Spa, Suzuka is
magnificent and has created some beautiful drives and unforgettable
moments. With the season winding down
with the final six fly away races the updates will be smaller but the racing
ever fiercer. By current competitive
constructor order:
Red Bull
Vettel is the closest to Alonso by points (29 back) while
Mark has dropped since his early season consistency. Although RBR come off a Vettel victory under
the Singapore
lights, the car is not well suited to Suzuka.
Comparing to their performance at Spa, it's going to be a weekend to get
through and be done with for RBR. The
car has performed best at locations with low to medium speed corners. Looking at the race pace from Germany on, the
finishes have been consistently lower than qualifying. Exceptions being Britain, where Webber won
thanks to wet qualifying and practices, and Spa, where a flying Frenchman destroyed
most of the front runners.
The high speed nature of Suzuka and the Red Bulls known comparatively low top speed will not help this weekend. Prediction: qualifying position between fourth and eighth, race finish between fifth and seventh.
McLaren
Word on the grid is Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button are in
the fastest car (unless you ask them, they say Red Bull). McLaren has shown excellent pace of late on
virtually every circuit, from Spa to Singapore . Hamilton
has out right one lap pace in the Macca but will also be leaving his team at
the end of the year. Buttons smooth
style, and loyalty, along with his respect and admiration for Japan and the Japanese people will
give him an emotional edge.
Do not expect McLaren to do anything that would stab Hamilton in the back, not
with him still having a shot at the title.
But that doesn't mean his mechanics and engineers are going to be
entirely pleased with his decision to leave them. Prediction: qualifying should be poll and, at
worst, second row. Race finish, remember
that majority of dry race winners have come from the front row, so a win is in
the cards. Buttons light touch aids his
race pace; he gets the edge over Hamilton ,
even if he starts behind him.
Ferrari
The F2012 may not have been the fastest car on the grid once
this year but it's strategists have been wily, and Alonso, superb. The Ferrari may not be the best at any one
circuit, but it has been consistently within striking distance of those that
are. In Alonso's hands, more often than
not, the red car is able to strike, hence the points lead Alonso has had since Malaysia . Massa
is a lost cause; not sure if he isn't up to speed to Alonso...or just was never
that good to begin with. He backed into
a title fight in 2008, thanks to Hamilton
mistakes and penalties, and he was never a real match to Schumacher or
Raikkonen. Saddest of all for his
comeback, Massa
has not come close to what Alonso can do.
Lotus
Lotus moved by Mercedes in the Constructors a few races ago
and continue progressing. Without
winning a race Kimi Raikkonen sits third in the Drivers Championship, 45 points
adrift of Fernando. Grossjeans has also
put in a valiant effort in his first full season, though a timeout did mar it.
Like every race weekend, this one presents the best chance
for Lotus to get a win. Kimi has
returned close to his original F1 form and presents Lotus' best option at
victory. Suzuka is so technical it
rewards experience and Kimi's years, not to mention successes, at Suzuka put
him head and shoulders over his teammate.
Prediction: Kimi on the front two rows, Grossjeans anywhere on the third
and fourth rows. Race finish, Kimi on
the podium, Grossjeans just outside the top five.
Mercedes
Snagging Hamilton
is a coup for Ross Brawn's well funded but underperforming Mercedes
effort. All eyes will be on the
re-retiring Michael Schumacher, who has a 6 race farewell tour ahead of
him. Schumacher couldn't have picked a
worse time to retire; by all appearances he's finally relearned the craft and
has finished higher than his teammate when his car hasn't let him down or gotten
into an accident. Perhaps without the
burden of having to outperform the car Michael will be able to...outperform the
car.
Rosberg is consistent but Schumacher comes with six Suzuka
victories to his name. The team will
probably be throwing some 2013 bits onto the cars in preparation of the British
Diva's arrival next season so competitiveness could take a hit. Prediction: fifth and sixth rows possible,
Rosberg ahead of Michael. Race finish,
Schumacher between eighth and tenth, Rosberg between ninth and twelfth.
Sauber
Sauber loses the spectacular Sergio Perez to McLaren. It is a major loss, in both money and skill,
which the team is not happy with. Sauber
wants to be a team that drivers gravitate to and want to drive for, not a team
that drivers use as a stepping stone. As
much progress in that direction as was made this year the team are still not
there yet, at least not when the likes of McLaren come calling.
Kamui has great single lap pace, is racing at home on a
track he knows well, and has much experience at Suzuka (especially overtaking). Perez comes in with all of his finesse and
confidence that a waiting top drive can bring.
Prediction: Kamui put it on the front row at Spa, Perez snagged a fifth
starting spot; don't see why similar positions aren't possible this weekend. Race finish, a Koby win at home would be nice
wouldn't it? And a Perez podium would be
neat too.
Force India
Rough season for Force India has gotten less rough as of
late. They've clawed back a few points
on Sauber but di Resta and Hulkenberg can't do much more with the machinery
they have. A disappointing season all
around.
Prediction: Might squeeze into Q3 but more likely starting near the back of Q2. Race finish, the usual high top speed should help them get closer to the points, but a points finish would be surprising.
Williams
A tale of two drivers.
Maldonado: fiery, fast, dangerous; can win but more often than not
tosses the car into a wall. Senna:
consistent, calm, overlooked; misses out on Free Practice one to Bottas because
Maldonado brings enough money in to avoid sharing, taking precious laps away
from him on race weekends. Senna has
more consistent points finishes but Maldonado's victory will be the lasting
image of this season. With Bottas again
replacing Senna for FP1 on a track where every lap is needed to get everything
down Senna is at his usual disadvantage.
Prediction: Maldonado surprised with his third place grid
position in Spa. He could put it up
between rows three and five, Senna won't be in the top ten. Race finish, if Maldonado keeps it in one
piece he could be right around P5, while Senna should be able to scrap up to
tenth.
SO, finally, my picks are: Kamui Kobayashi victory, Kimi
Raikkonen second, Sergio Perez third. I
also predict a McLaren pole, Kamui second on the grid, followed by Button and
Kimi. Realistic or just bullshit (long
time since I did one of these; bullshit meter is high)? We will find out in due time.
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